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If one considers that a dramatic event would happens with a probability P<<1 over the course of one unit of time, then after N units of time the probability to get at least one such event is 1-(1-P)^N.
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Suppose that you are a PhD student with a contract of about 3 years, and that the probabilty of losing all your data is 0.001 (0.1%), then the probability that you'll lose all data during your PhD is 2/3! Are you willing to take the chance?
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